A stochastic model for potential tsunamis in the pacific northwest effect on local tsunamis from spatial variations of slip during rupture. The 1700 great cascadia earthquake m 9 generated widespread tsunami waves that affected the entire pacific ocean and caused damage as distant as japan. Local tsunami hazards in the pacific northwest from cascadia subduction zone earthquakes usgs professional paper 1661b 1. Simulated tsunami inundation for a range of cascadia megathrust. Simulation parameters for the scenario that generated the least shaking in the seattle area. Modeling performed by the university of washington tsunami modeling group, using the open source geoclaw software developed by this group and our. Tsunami simulator recreates devastating waves for first. This graphic shows, in light blue, some of the areas that might be flooded near the mouth of the columbia river during a tsunami caused by a major earthquake on the cascadia subduction zone. Cascadia simulated event page simulated sea level plots. A suspected dui driver is behind bars thursday evening after police said. Nov 14, 2012 this movie shows a physicsbased computer simulation of the tsunami expected from the next cascadia earthquake.
The resulting tsunami hazard map illustrated inundation from this most likely event and the uncertainty of inundation using a worst case and minimum cascadia event. Dec 20, 2005 the researchers knew that a tsunami speeding across the pacific ocean travels at jetliner speedabout 500 mphand it would take about 10 hours for a tsunami originating in cascadia to reach japan. Erin wirthuniversity of washingtonusgs one of the worst nightmares for many pacific northwest residents is a huge earthquake along the offshore cascadia subduction zone, which would unleash damaging and likely deadly shaking in coastal. Below is a startling simulation of what the tsunami may have looked like in 1700 as it travelled from the u. Video 3d cfd simulation with eole software of a tsunami impacting a coastal city. Topography and wave heights vertically exaggerated at different scales to illustrate wavefield. A highresolution numerical model was used to estimate tsunami propagation and inundation along the outer coast of southwest washington. The term tsunami harbour wave comes from japan where the phenomenon frequently occurs.
Tsunami squares simulation of megathrustgenerated waves. Tsunami hazard mitigation program via a grant from the emergency management division of. Tsunami simulator e 2,705 players, 3,192 plays 0 playing now, 38 most ever online 2. In approximately 15 minutes, the tsunami would be first recorded at tsunameterdart buoys 46404, 46407, 46411 and 46419. Rupture scenario witter and others, 2011 tsunami inundation map tim series scenario maximum offshore uplift ma maximum offshore.
Geological survey are based on scientific modeling programs. It consolidates data from the earliest published reports on cascadia tsunami deposits e. An online tool was tested against dataset in kamala and patong municipality, phuket, thailand. Qcn explorer is a simulator of the quake catcher network, a volunteer computing project out of stanford university. The 1700 cascadia earthquake occurred along the cascadia subduction zone on january 26 with an estimated moment magnitude of 8. July evening public lecture 2015 the giant cascadia earthquake of january. Velocities and densities in our computational mesh are defined by integrating the regional cascadia community velocity model cvm v1.
Noaa center for tsunami research simulated tsunami event. Computer simulation of tsunami wavefield 20 minutes after a hypothetical magnitude 7. This same general approach was followed for inundation maps completed between 1996 and 2007 but with more sophisticated earthquake sources and tsunami simulation software see. To explore the local tsunami hazard from the cascadia subduction zone we 1 evaluate geologically reasonable variability of the earthquake rupture process, 2 specify 25 deterministic earthquake sources, and 3 use resulting vertical coseismic deformations for simulation of tsunami inundation at cannon beach, oregon. Oregon tsunami clearinghouse oregon tsunami information. Study outlines impact of tsunami on the columbia river. The tsunami source is based on prior work by walsh et al. Indonesia 1,2, cascadia 3,4, alaska 5, and chile 6 all feature subduction. The goal of this project is to educate people about seismology and increase the awareness of qcn. New simulation videos from the washington state department. The analytical baseline study for the cascadia earthquake and tsunami, a 2011 study commissioned by fema region 10 and conducted by the national infrastructure simulation and analysis center homeland infrastructure threat and risk analysis center hitrac within the dhs of. Maximum wave elevations at the shoreline varied from. Tsunami wave simulation for washington state from a hypothetical.
The results can be verified by oceanographic sensors such as tide gauges or buoys. Animation of tsunami inundation in newport, oregon simulation from the adcirc finite element model. The researchers knew that a tsunami speeding across the pacific ocean travels at jetliner speedabout 500 mphand it would take about 10 hours for a. Local tsunami hazards in the pacific northwest from cascadia. The noaa center for tsunami research modeled tsunami inundation from a great cascadiasubduction zone earthquake for the coastal communities of long beach and ocean shores. Uw researchers model tsunami hazards on the northwest coast.
May 15, 2014 highlights we develop an online tool for tsunami inundation simulation and loss estimation. Tsunami simulations delineate the likelihood that cascadia tsunamis will exceed mapped inundation lines. This movie shows a physicsbased computer simulation of the tsunami expected from the next cascadia earthquake. The great east japan earthquake of march 11, 2011, and the tsunami it caused devastated the tohoku region. Oregon tsunami information clearinghouse oregon dept. Variable rupture scenarios for tsunami simulations inferred. When an underwater quake or any other cause suddenly sets a great depth of water into motion, it causes a gigantic wave to form. Numerical simulation of m9 megathrust earthquakes in the. Oct 23, 2017 the largest number yet of detailed simulations for how a cascadia subduction zone earthquake might play out provides a clearer picture of what the region can expect when the fault unleashes a 9. The cascadia tsunami deposit database contains data on the location and sedimentological properties of tsunami deposits found along the cascadia margin. Tsunami simulations for california ca department of conservation. Modeling tsunami inundation from a cascadia subduction zone.
Oct 23, 2017 fifty simulations of the really big one show how a 9. Confidence levels for tsunamiinundation limits in northern. Data have been compiled from 52 studies, documenting 59 sites from northern california to vancouver island, british columbia that contain known or potential tsunami deposits. Tsunami simulations for washington state coasts university of. Coseismic slip on the southern cascadia megathrust implied by. Sooner or later the offshore cascadia fault zone is going to unleash a monster earthquake and tsunami. Development of an online tool for tsunami inundation. Not nearly as much danger during an earthquake along the cascadia subduction zone. Fifty simulations of the really big one show how a 9. Modeling tsunami inundation from a cascadia subduction zone earthquake for long beach and ocean shores, washington a. The cascadia tsunami deposit database is a compilation of published data on the location and sedimentary characteristics of tsunami deposits found along the cascadia margin.
Similar catastrophic waves may be generated by a future cascadia megathrust earthquake. Typical farfield tsunami simulations employ the shallow water approximation of the. California department of conservation administers a variety of programs vital to californias public safety, environment and economy. To aid tsunami hazard mitigation, we used the 15 cascadia tsunami simulations to map tsunami inundation. In light of this bitter experience, to implement effective measures that would minimize the damage cause by major earthquakes and tsunamis in the future, there is a great need to use largescale simulation technology to elucidate the mechanisms behind the structural failure of buildings. First, theres the cascadia subduction zone running roughly parallel to. Tsunami simulator game making software construct 3. This hypothetical cascadia tsunami is assumed to be generated by a mw 9. The name of a good open source code for tsunami modelling is clawpack standing for conservation law package developed by prof. Stretching off the pacific shore from northern california some 0 kilometers to the tip of vancouver island, the cascadia subduction zone appears capable of its own magnitude 9 earthquake. Sampling survey techniques are proposed to estimate building property ratio. Tsunamis devastating impact on washington after potential.
Three accuracy levels of exposure data are proposed and customized for the tool. The length of the rupture is estimated to be km with a width of 83 km. With the goal of greater interoperability with other software, we introduce a. Understanding the west coast tsunami threat duration.
Jan 23, 2018 below is a startling simulation of what the tsunami may have looked like in 1700 as it travelled from the u. Mystery of 18thcentury tsunami solved live science. Jan 10, 2019 we estimate ground motions in the pacific northwest urban areas during m9 subduction scenario earthquakes on the cascadia megathrust by simulating wave propagation from an ensemble of kinematic source descriptions. Inundation exceedance lines delineate the likelihood in percent that cascadia tsunamis will exceed the simulated inundation fig. Simulated tsunami inundation for a range of cascadia. Numerical simulations of the tsunami generated by the 1700 earthquake that agree with documented tsunami heights in japan require an earthquake source with 1821 m of coseismic slip along the entire 1,100. Cascadia tsunami a model of the wave propagation from the 1700 cascadia tsunami, created by the geological survey of canada. Tsunami squares also shows good agreement with traditional finite difference simulations of the shallow water equations. Aug 17, 2015 so, is the tsunami danger in puget sound not as bad as the open coast.
Fullycoupled simulations of megathrust earthquakes and tsunamis. Offshore tsunami wave amplitude was estimated based on the source described by witter et al. The last large cascadia earthquake happened in january, 1700. Simulated tsunami inundation agrees with sparse deposits left by the a. The last magnitude 9 cascadia subduction zone earthquake struck in january. The videos show cascadia tsunami wave simulations for the entire washington coast, as well as more detailed, localized views for bellingham. New videos show tsunami impacts in washington wa dnr. What are the open source software for tsunami modeling. Plate 1 shows simulated inundation for the five splay fault scenarios. Maximum coseismic uplift and subsidence, tsunami wave elevation, and percent confidence that cascadia inundation scenarios cover all cascadia inundation. Tsunami simulations for washington show what could happen after 9. Toast tsunami observation and simulation terminal is a software for tsunami simulation and verification giving a quick hazard assessment. Qcn explorer allows users to simulate how the qcn responds to an earthquake with a larger number of sensors.